ALERT! NEW INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR NORTH ATLANTIC TSUNAMI THREAT- FROM DR. SIMON ATKINS OF AFC, NOW A 1 IN 3 PROBABILITY RISK, FROM PRESENT DATE TO JUNE 5, 2013 - HIGHEST RISK DATES ARE 5/22-5/23/13

SPECIFICALLY, THIS RISK IS BEING INCREASED FROM 25% TO 38% DUE TO THE RECENT MASSIVE POWER FAILURE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THAILAND - WE ARE URGING ALL THOSE ALONG THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO PLEASE BE AWARE OF THIS HIGH PROBABILITY THREAT AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY (FOR COMPARISON - THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS NORTH ATLANTIC THREAT WAS AT .05% AT THE BEGINNING OF MAY - THIS MEANS WE ARE NOW MOVING FROM A 1 IN 4 CHANCE TO A 1 IN 3 CHANCE) - PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND WE ASK THAT YOU PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO THOSE WHO ARE WILLING TO LISTEN.

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This site at the following NASA link is updated following every post to the GCN Circular with regards to current observation of GRB (Gamma Ray Burst)130427A / and now SN (Supernova) 2013q

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HST WFC3 and ACS observations of GRB 130427A

HST images of GRB 130427A. The images were obtained on 20 May 2013, roughly 23 days after the burst. The images are approximately 6 arcseconds on a side, with North up and East to the left. The afterglow is clearly visible in the centre of the images, while the blue band F336W shows sub-structure in the galaxy that is less visible in the IR.

A.J. Levan (U. Warwick), A.S. Fruchter, J. Graham (STScI), N.R. Tanvir (U. Leicester), Jens Hjorth, Johan Fynbo (Dark Cosmology Centre, Copenhagen), D. Perley (Caltech), S.B. Cenko (U.C. Berkeley), E. Pian (Trieste), Z. Cano (U. Iceland) A. Pe'er (Cork), R. Hounsell (STScI), K. Mishra (ARIES, India), C. Kouveliotou (MSFC) report: 

"We observed the optical/NIR counterpart of GRB 130427A (Maselli et al. GCN 14448) with the Hubble Space Telescope beginning at 02:23 UT on 20 May 2013. The afterglow is well detected in our multi-band observations in the UV (F336W), optical (F606W) and NIR (F160W) and is offset approximately 0.8" from the optical centroid of its host. The host itself also contains additional star forming complexes including a bright UV source approximately 0.25" from the GRB position.

In the three bands we measure preliminary magnitudes of the afterglow + supernova of F336W=23.10 +/- 0.02, F606W=21.85 +/- 0.02, F160W=21.34 +/- 0.03

These show significant curvature indicative of the presence of the underlying supernova in the optical. If the optical light were entirely dominated by supernova emission the absolute magnitude at z=0.34 would be M_B~ -19.1, 17 rest-frame days post burst. However, SNe are weaker UV and IR emitters and so under the naive assumption that the UV and IR bands are dominated by power-law afterglow emission with minimal supernova contribution the inferred magnitude of the supernova in the V-band (rest frame B-band) is V~23. This corresponds to an absolute magnitude of M_B ~ -17.9, approximately a magnitude fainter than the B-band peak of SN 1998bw, which occurred 15 days post burst.

We thank the STScI staff for their work in rapidly scheduling these observations."

Credit: http://www.star.le.ac.uk/~anl/GRB130427A/

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Sunspot AR1748 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

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http://youtu.be/zcuY65XQqfU

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Monday, May 20, 2013

Investigated meteorite fall in Baja, California

Note that I'm not sure about the credibility of this sighting as there has been no information on any MSM sites and this is meant to have occurred about 18 hours ago now.. so take this report with a grain of salt.

Via astrowatch.net, 19 May 2013 (Thanks Troy and Ester) - Civil Protection Management of Baja California Sur reported that staff of the unit, in coordination with public security authorities, seeking a supposed meteorite whose fall was reported in social networks and call the Emergency Center of La Paz. The head of the Civil Protection Unit of the state, Carlos Enriquez Corner, said that around 4 pm yesterday, by various means were reported alleged meteorite fall in the south of the capital, so staff Security is doing tours and inspecting.

He said city residents reported to the Control Center, Command, Communications and Computer (C4), who observed a luminous object falling from the sky that immediately triggered a strong vibration, which caused them to fear and uncertainty.

The official said rescuers are looking for what was to be sighted and caused hundreds of houses cimbraran.

Fall of a meteorite in La Paz Baja California 18/05/2013. Credit: Google

Some social network users said they found an object that had entered south to north, entering the Bay of La Paz to the urban area.

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Thank you Laron Smith for your research, article, and explanation of NASA's current data on 2013KB and to Dr. Simon Atkins, AFC for your expert scientific contributions as this is a high risk threat

that needs to be on the forefront of emergency planning efforts RIGHT NOW, we can only hope that people are listening and sharing this information...THANK YOU TO THOSE THAT ARE...

Scientific analysis of the approach of Asteroid 2013 KB

This is a follow up to my post, 'Asteroid 2013 KB - Possible Earth impact'. On May the 17th, 2013, NASA identified Asteroid 2013 KB which is shown to pass by Earth on the 22nd of May, 2013. Going by my calculations, the closest its going to get to us is roughly around eight hundred thousand miles.

Condition Code

Do you remember DA14? The closest DA14 got to Earth was around twenty one thousand miles. Well, thats what they predicted before it actually passed by. Going by the Wiki entry for DA14, the actual distance from Earth was seventeen thousand miles. A slight error in calculation there.

Another thing about DA14 is that before it passed by, they predicted the diameter was around 45-50 meters. It was actually 30 meters in diameter.

So, Asteroid 2013 KB should only come within 800,000 miles of Earth, so it shouldn't be a problem right? Well, the thing is, NASA has marked Asteroid 2013 KB with a 'condition code' of 8 out of 9. Below is a screen shot from NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory Website which shows what the field 'condition code' means.

The number 9 is the highest uncertainty value, where the number 0 would be a certainty value of very good.

This website here, http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013%20KB&orb=1, shows the trajectory and orbit of various objects, but in this case the link is heading directly to the page for Asteroid 2013 KB.

So to summarise, Asteroid 2013 KB has an uncertainly value of 8/9. This means that NASA is not so sure about the actual direction it is heading and how close it will get to Earth.

What was the condition code of DA14? It was 0. In the end, NASA said DA14 would get as close as 21,000 miles, but it was actually 17,000 miles. That was with a condition code of 0. I do wonder to my self what the error rate would be with a condition code of 8. Perhaps the size of 2013 KB may actually be a bit bigger as well? Or smaller?

I think it is apparent that the longer an object in space is observed, the more accurate the orbit can be calculated. Since Asteroid 2013 KB only showed up on the 17th of May, 3 days ago, it is a bit hard to get a good reading on its trajectory. Maybe tomorrow there will be some new information on it.

Moving on now... I think I made my point there.

Russian asteroid impact and DA14

When that meteor flew over the Russian skies and impacted, around the time DA14 sped past Earth at 17,000 meters above ground, NASA told the World that the impact in Russia had no relation to DA14 and that it was just a coincidence.

Climate risk Scientist, Doctor Simon Atkins recorded an interview with Fox news days beforehand, explaining that DA14 would likely cause ionospheric disturbance on the Earth and as a result, may impact the weather with colder temperatures, cause an increase in flooding and snowstorms in the northern hemisphere and an increase in Wind related events around the World. You can find that video here.

From following the news so closely back then because I was tracking many IDIR webbot predictions and finding many hits as a result, I confirm from memory that these three main forecasts by Doctor Simon Atkins above, did actually occur within the months after DA14 flew past Earth.

Doctor Simon Atkins also made another forecast before DA14 came by. He said that a piece of DA14 may break off and enter our Atmosphere while it came past Earth. You can find the video confirming that here. Specifically, Simon Atkins said that DA14 may fragment because of a hairline type of fracture, due to the type of Asteroid DA14 was(silica). He also said it would likely cause an EMP type explosion if that was the case, which is what happened over the skies of Russia.

Doctor Simon Atkins is very sure that the object that appeared over Russia and exploded, impacting the Earth, was a fragmented piece off of DA14. The object that also flew over Cuba was also a fragment of DA14, Simon Atkins believes.

Note that the Institute of Space Sciences in Barcelona confirmed at the time, using their equipment that the fragment which exploded over Russia was part of DA14.

Asteroid 2013 KB

I informed Doctor Simon Atkins about Asteroid 2013 KB yesterday and he has provided me with the following information surrounding this Asteroid.

He mentioned that when an asteroid comes past Earth at less than 20,000 miles, it changes the magnetic energy and pressure on Earth, and in addition to the solar storms occurring at the moment, the coupling might cause too much of an energetic shift, which in turn could cause a large planetary event to potentially occur.

This would then tie in with the time frame that Doctor Simon Atkins has discussed in relation to his forecast of an event in the Atlantic Ocean, and possibly other oceans which you can read about here, 'Climate risk Scientist Doctor Simon Atkins on Fox News 25 - Global Coastal Event validation'. That time frame being around the 22nd and 23rd of May, 2013.

Summary

It is said that there are more than a million asteroids out there smaller than 100 meters. With the amount of meteorite sightings in the month of May, the chances seem to be rather high that something larger may come close to Earth this month, such as Asteroid 2013 KB, and in turn have some kind of energetic impact on the tectonic plates on earth, in turn triggering a few earth change related events.

I think the info speaks for it self.

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In the last 24 hours the AMS has received confirmed reports about 4 unique fireball events all occurring near 4:00 AM UTC time. The most recent event occurred in Arkansas and Missouri on May 19th near 3:37 UTC. At the same time 3:37 UTC 4 witnesses reported a fireball in Arizona. The distance between these two locations would inhibit witnesses from observing the same fireball from both locations. On May 18th two large fireball meteors were also spotted within an hour of each other, one over the central east coast and another in Colorado. Below is a table of the events in question.

Below is a map of the four events, illustrating the common direction of these fireballs.

 

Four Fireballs at Four in Last 24 Hours

Google Earth users can download a KMZ file containing the trajectory estimates for these four events (you must unzip the file before opening in Google Earth). If you witnessed any of these fireball events please fill out an official fireball report.

http://www.amsmeteors.org/2013/05/four-fireballs-at-four-in-last-24-hours/?goback=%2Egde_3991439_member_242423556

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NORTH ATLANTIC TSUNAMI THREAT MAY 20 THRU JUN 05, 2013 

A HUGE THANK YOU TO DR. SIMON ATKINS, CEO OF ADVANCED FORECASTING CORPORATION FOR THIS VERY IMPORTANT MESSAGE: Here is the first segment of a FOX News interview:  http://www.myfoxboston.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=8893387#.UZd57oeY7M8.gmail

[link to www.myfoxboston.com] 

It's short, but it is the first prediction of a tsunami, ever, after mentioning a heightened planetary risk period. Again, this is all based on scientific calculations, and the large solar storm that currently continues to back this up.



The May 22-23 window would be the highest threat time. Just yesterday, NASA came out and said that for May 22 they have identified an asteroid that could come even closer to Earth than the previous one earlier this year where the largest fragment in 100 years hit Central Russia. 



I am not saying that an asteroid is going to cause a tsunami. But when an asteroid whizzes-by at less than 20,000 miles, it changes the magnetic energy and pressures on Earth, and in addition to the solar storm, the coupling might cause too much of an energetic shift causing a large planetary event to potentially occur.



Because of NASA's announcement, I am now raising the possibility of a North Atlantic tsunami in the May 20 to June 5 period to 21%.



As always, at a personal / family level, it is best to be prepared by having water and food for 2-3 weeks, as well as other necessities. Black Swan events cause disruptions in energy, transportation and other logistics, and so while it is important not to live in fear, it is important to be prudent and have supplies on hand, because as a scientist, I can tell you we do live in a different space weather era now and risks are changing.



IF you hear in the news about a blackout ANYWHERE and they make a tie to any Coronal Mass Ejection or other magnetic energy event, this will greatly amplify the 21% probability of the North Atlantic tsunami risk for the 5/20 - 6/05 period. IF that is the case, then you might want to think about market impacts (energy, transport logistics, etc). It is hard enough predicting a tsunami, let alone effects thereafter, but IF I am right on this (and I hope I am not), the damage could be substantial. Given that even NASA has an high chance of further X-flares from the current solar storm, the energy is remarkably strong. 



The North Atlantic basin has had the largest electromagnetic 'pulse' (actually since last year) when I started putting this risk scenario together. And because of that, it attracts the magnetic pulses from the sun. That is why we are concentrating on the North Atlantic and not another ocean. 

For the information related to asteroid 2013KB, see the following:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] and
[link to www.youtube.com] 

Dr. Simon Atkins
Climate Risk Economist, CEO
Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC]

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WHAT'S IN THE OFFING? A new sunspot is approaching. For the past two days it has been crackling with flares and hurling material over the sun's northeast limb.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed these glowing magnetic loops marking the spot of an M1-class explosion during the early hours of May 20th. The sunspot is on the sun's farside now, but solar rotation is carrying it in our direction. It a day or so it will emerge into view over the sun's eastern limb. Then, forecasters can evaluate its magnetic field and potential for additional flares. Stay tuned for more. Credit: www.spaceweather.com

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NASA’s advice for near-term meteor strike: “Pray” - 

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March 8, 2013 - Hi Simon, I just signed up to your website .. In the Interview, you speak of the 200 ft wave with regard to US. Will this ONLY impact US -- or will there be a similar effect on the other side of the 'pool', and what about the rest of the world? In particular, the Pacific, and Indian Ocean? I cannot imagine that its localized... Your kind elaboration would be much appreciated. Thanks, Sharanya

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